Focused
Research Area
Currency Board
Economics and the AEL Model
(September
1998 – December 2003)
Updated
for changed links in 2010
|
Introduction Outside almost everyone's
predictions, the speculative currency attacks in The method used by the Hong
Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to defend the link was interpreted by many to
rely on the active manipulation of interbank liquidity and interest rates.
That was denied by the HKMA. In the midst of the controversy and the crisis,
the Financial Secretary started a consultation exercise with academics in
November 1997 to collect views on how to improve the link. Our colleague
Prof. S. K. Tsang was one of those consulted. Prof. Tsang proposed to
strengthen the system by adopting the AEL model of Argentina, Estonia and
Lithuania, under which the central bank guarantees the convertibility at the
fixed exchange rate of the whole monetary base (indeed all its financial
liabilities), in stead of just the cash base as under the classical currency
board. The proposal was also described by the mass media as the "Baptist
University Proposal", in juxtapose with those made by academics in other
sister institutions. In its Report on Financial
Market Review released in April 1998, the Hong Kong SAR Government rejected
the major proposals by the academics. Intense speculation on the The Department of Economics
decided in September 1998 to establish a new focused research area on
"Currency Board Economics and the AEL Model" to concentrate
resources in conducting on-going research. Emphasis was also put on
establishing external links that facilitate useful discussions. The Research Team Prof. Shu-ki Tsang (Coordinator) Sktsang@hkbu.edu.hk Ycheng@hkbu.edu.hk Billymak@hkbu.edu.hk Cysin@hkbu.edu.hk External members Dr. Yue Ma ( November 1998 Conference To provide a forum for rigorous
analysis by scholars and experts from around the world on the general themes
of exchange rate stability and currency board economics, the Department of
Economics organised an International
Conference on Exchange Rate Stability and Currency Board Economics on 28-29
November 1998. The conference was attended by participants from the HKMA, the
World Bank, the IMF, the US Fed, the Bundesbank, as well as researchers and
officials from other central banks, universities, institutions and commercial
entities. Over thirty keynote speeches and papers were presented. Quite a few
of them analyzed the theory of currency board economics and the specific
currency board arrangements in Members of our Research Team presented several
papers in the Conference: 1. Shu-ki
Tsang, Yuk-shing Cheng and Chor-yiu Sin, "The Robustness of Hong Kong's
Linked Exchange Rate System as a Currency Board Arrangement." 2. Billy Mak,
"Can Put Option Stabilize the Exchange Rate Under a Currency Board
System?" 3. Shu-ki Tsang and Yue Ma, " Currency Substitution and
Speculative Attacks on a Currency Board System." A revised version of
the paper was later published in vol. 21, no. 1, Journal of International
Money and Finance, 2002. Seminar and Conference Presentations Members of the Research Team undertook further
research in the area. A project, "The Linked Exchange Rate as a Currency
Board System: Market Efficiency, Regime Efficiency and Economic
Optimality", was funded by a Faculty Research Grant of the HKBU. The
Research Team also invited local and overseas academics to visit the HKBU to
give seminar talks. Prof. S.K. Tsang presented the following paper at
the 6th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association in "Fixing the Exchange Rate through a Currency
Board Arrangement: Efficiency Risk, Systemic Risk and Exit Cost". The
paper was published in Asian Economic Journal, Vol.13, No.3, September 1999. Arranged
seminars in 1999 (at Two local seminar presentations were made by
members of the Team: And the
following paper of team members was accepted for the 54th European
Meeting of the Econometric Society held at Shu-ki Tsang,
Chor-yiu Sin and Yuk-shing Cheng, "The Robustness of Hong
Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System as a Currency Board Arrangement."
Prof.
S.K. Tsang and Dr. C.Y. Sin attended the Meeting and presented the paper. A
seminar on the Bulgarian situation was organised: International
Workshop on As a
follow-up to the conference of November 1998, the Economics Department, under
the full support of the Team, organised an international workshop on the
theme "Currency Boards: Convertibility, Liquidity Management and
Exit". Speakers included local and overseas experts and practitioners.
For details, please refer to the web page www.sktsang.com/99WS/99ws.htm
(full set of papers and presentations available online). Seminar
on Currency Boards organised by Bank of Estonia, 5-6 May 2000 The
Bank of Estonia organised a seminar on "Currency Boards: Experience and
Prospects" in Tallinn on 5-6 May 2000. Prof. S.K. Tsang was invited to
present a paper entitled "Commitment and Exit Strategies from a
CBA". Making use of the trip to Tallinn, Prof. Tsang also visited the
Bank of Estonia on 8 May and gave a talk on "The Evolution and Prospects
of the Hong Kong CBA" to bank staff and other interested parties. Participation
in Policy Research Prof.
S.K. Tsang was appointed a Member of the Sub-Committee on Currency Board Operations
of the Exchange Fund Advisory Committee of the Hong Kong SAR Government in
November 1998. The Sub-Committee was a vehicle for the monetary authorities
in Hong Kong to gauge the views of experts on the operations of the currency
board regime in Hong Kong and on ways to further improve its robustness. Prof
S.K. Tsang was appointed a Member of the Council of Advisors of the Hong Kong
Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) in September 1999. The HKIMR was a
research centre established by the HKMA with the objective of promoting
in-depth research on monetary, financial and economic issues relevant to Hong
Kong and the Asian Region. Currency board economics was one of the areas of
interest. Prof. S.K. Tsang published a paper “Legal
Frameworks of Currency Board Regimes” in the August 1999 issue of the
Quarterly Bulletin of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; while Dr C.Y. Sin
published a joint paper with Kam-hon Chu and Bob Y.C. Chan entitled
“Contagion Effects, Information Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An
Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics During the Asian Currency Crisis” under
the Working Papers Series of the HKIMR (No. 02/2000). Dr. Y.S. Cheng and Dr, Yue Ma, along with Prof.
S.K. Tsang, were invited to attend academic consultation meetings by the HKMA
on various topics relating to the currency board system in Hong Kong. Dr. Ma
also served as Research Fellow at the HKIMR in July-August 2000. Developments in
2001-2002 The following paper of team members was presented
in the 2001 Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society held at Kobe, Japan
on 20 July - 22 July 2001: Chi-shing Chan (University of Hong Kong), Chor-yiu
Sin and Yuk-shing Cheng, "High Interest Rate as a Signal of the Resolve
to Defend Currencies." Dr. C.Y. Sin attended the Meeting and presented
the paper. Dr. Yue
Ma and Prof. S.K. Tsang made an internal presentation at the HKIMR on an
arbitrage model of exchange rate regimes including the currency board system
in 2001. Prof. S.K. Tsang was invited to present a paper at
the International Conference on Monetary Outlook on East Asia in An
Integrating World Economy, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand,
5-6 September 2001. The conference was attended by Nobel Laureate Robert
Mundell, and Ronald McKinnon, amongst others. Tsang's paper was entitled
“One Country, Two Monetary Systems: An Eclectic Essay”. Besides the issues of
monetary integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China, he illustrated the
problems relating to how a currency board system could exit the peg, with
reference to Argentina. The paper was posted as on Prof. Tsang's personal website. Prof.
S.K. Tsang continued to serve as a member he Sub-Committee on Currency Board
Operations of the Exchange Fund Advisory Committee of the Hong Kong SAR
Government and an advisor to the Hong Kong Institute for
Monetary Research (HKIMR).
He spent three months (October - December 2001) as a visiting research fellow
at the HKIMR doing a project on "Monetary Integration between Hong Kong
and Mainland China". During his fellowship at the HKIMR, he visited the
Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB)
and the Bank of Estonia in November 2001 to gain more understanding of how
East European CBAs were prepared to join the Euro-zone. In the visit, he made
a presentation called “One Country, Two Monetary
Systems” at the BIS on 6 November; at the BNB on 9 November; and at the Bank
of Estonia on 14 November.
To summarise the research findings of his fellowship, he presented a paper “From ‘One Country, Two Systems’ to Monetary Integration?” at the
HKIMR on 30 January 2002.The
following working papers were subsequently published:
“From
“One Country, Two Systems”to Monetary Integration?”, HKIMR Working Paper No.15/2002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary
Research, September 2002. “Optimum Currency
Area for Mainland China and Hong Kong? Empirical Tests”, HKIMR Working Paper No.16/2002, Hong Kong Institute for
Monetary Research, September 2002. Prof. S.K. Tsang gave a talk "Currency Board Economics and the AEL
Model" in the executive MBA programme of
the Chinese University of Hong Kong on 22 January 2002, in which he discussed
the impending collapse of the Argentine currency board system and the lasting
lessons of the AEL model. The following paper of team members was presented
in the 2002 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society held at Los
Angeles, USA on 20 June - 24 June 2002: Chi-shing Chan (University of Hong
Kong), Chor-yiu Sin and Yuk-shing Cheng, "Why is Currency Attack/Peg
Prolonged?". Dr. C.Y. Sin attended the Meeting and presented the paper. Prof. S.K. Tsang was invited to
contribute a paper entitled "Currency
Boards on the Way to Monetary Union: The Doubly Unplanned Case of Hong Kong"
in Urmas Sepp and Martti Randveer (editors ), Alternative
Monetary Regimes in Entry to EMU, Bank of Estonia, November 2002.
The book was a collection to commemorate the 10th Anniversary of the
re-establishment of the Bank of Estonia. Seminars
and Research Papers on Currency Boards Several
seminars on currency boards were held in 2001-2002 at the Economics
Department of the HKBU. The papers, together with other relevant ones posted
in the internet, are available for download and links, at the web page www.sktsang.com/seminar.html.
It would be periodically updated. Second
Biennial Conference of HKEA Prof. S.K. Tsang organised and chaired Session G " Financial
Crisis, Policy Reponses and Reforms" of the Second Biennial
Conference of the Hong Kong Economic Association, 16-17 December
2002, HKBU, Hong Kong.
Members of the team presented the following papers at the conference: Dr.
Chan Chi-shin (JCTW Consultancy), Dr. Sin Chor-yiu and Dr. Cheng Yuk-shing,
"Why Is Currency Attack/Peg Prolonged". Dr.
Yue Ma and Prof. S.K. Tsang, "How a Currency Board
Fixes the Exchange Rate in a Crisis"; Dr.
Yue Ma and Prof. S.K. Tsang, "The Impact of External Balance on
Money Supply and Inflation in China" (with Prof. Y.Y. Kueh of Lingnan University). The
strengthening of the HK Dollar from late September 2003 Due to a number of internal and external factors, the market exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar strengthened from 23 September 2003 onwards. Prof. S.K. Tsang commented on the phenomenon in a press interview with Ming Pao and in the following short pieces: "The strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar: A few observations" (1/10/03) "Buffers
for the link: A graphical note" (15/10/03) Completion
of the FRA Members
of the team were of the view that the FRA had accomplished its objectives and
further research on relevant issues could be carried out without the need for
a focused programme. Hence the FRA was terminated in December 2003. |